NBA Previews, Predictions & Post Season Peeks (Western-Southwest)

News — By ObiWanCanubi on September 24, 2010 at 6:30 pm

Southwest order of finish:

San Antonio Spurs*
Memphis Grizzlies*
Dallas Mavericks*
Houston Rockets
New Orleans Hornets

(Seeded prior to Carmelo Anthony/Chris Paul factor)
*Playoff team
Carmelo/Chris Paul Factor: Both guys are making it clear they are going to make the 2011 off season just as explosive as this past summer. Carmelo wants out of Denver now and Paul will be sent packing at the deadline when the Hornets realize and accept they wont make the playoffs and/or resign Paul.

San Antonio Spurs
Overview:
For the past 20 years the Spurs have been the leading example of consistency, baring one bad season where they missed the playoffs. Since 1990 they have won the division 12 times and gone all the ways to the ultimate prize four times. If you look at the organization as a whole they have been constantly successful since their inception in 1967 only missing the playoffs 5 times. I chose 1990 as a reference point because it began the David Robinson era and transitioned eventually to the Tim Duncan era. With Duncan surely in his waning years where does the franchise transition? Manu Ginobili or Tony Parker? Possibly George Hill becomes a breakout star, regardless the team has no stand out person to take the reigns, it would seem likely that you would say Manu, but honestly while he is only entering his 8th year he is already 33 and only one year younger than Duncan.
Keys to Success:
Manu and T.P. are firmly established guards, if Hill develops on a bell curve he will be the teams top player in a season or two. If he is already plateaued then he is not much more than a 6th man.
Surprises in 2011:
Even with grabbing another Southwest title this team is actually firmly in decline, but thanks to a weak division and a declining rival in Dallas the team continues to be able to hold it’s position as top dog.
Random Thoughts:
Is it me or are the Spurs the NJ Devils of the NBA, their games are about as exciting as a rerun of a 1970s chess match.
Carmelo/Paul Factor
Unless it is via free agency don’t expect a western team to have a shot at either player.
Projection
Like I previously said the Spurs are in decline and aging, it will show with a quick sweep out of the playoffs.

Memphis Grizzlies
Overview:
Watch out folks, they could grab the division, but I am wagering safe and poking them into #2 of the Southwest. It is doubtful that anyone would question that Memphis is loaded with talent, they have been getting top picks every season and this past year have several picks from other teams. We know that Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo can play, and Rudy has to prove he deserved that max contract he just signed. This team will be a pleasure to watch.
Keys to Success:
Getting the young guys to play on the same page. Gay and Mayo are still kids themselves, but they are the leaders of a fleet of young guards in Xavier Henry and Greivis Vasquez. Marc Gasol even has an apprentice in Hasheem Thabeet at center and with Zach Randolph, a guy who would be an all star on a major team, swinging from forward to center it gives tremendous depth up front. Fear the bear.
Surprises in 2011:
If they play well they could steal the division, if they play at the learning curve then they will still surprise you with going deep in the playoffs. If the Griz can hold this team together they will be a winning team for years to come.
Random Thoughts:
Imagine if Big Country was here to pull down a few backboards, this team would be the full monty.
Projection
Conservatively they will be 2nd in the Southwest, but don’t be surprised if they sneak out a division win. Memphis will be the first seed from the non-div winners.
The Lakers may not view the Griz as a threat, but by seasons end you better believe they will keep an eye on the Mem abbreviation on the schedule in years to come. LA is still king of the west, but there is a new challenger for their throne.
Carmelo/Paul Factor
They have the keys to a sign and trade deal, but would never consider it… I hope.

Dallas Mavericks
Overview:
Mark Cuban made the Mavs a somebody when he bought the team and was willing to spend money in the 2000s, bu unlike in baseball spending money is not always your call when there is a hard cap limit. Cuban spent himself into a corner with players that have aged far beyond their talent and salary and now he needs to bleed out the lines. The 2010 roster could start with as many as 12 players with 10+ years in the league.
Keys to Success:
Right now the keys to success for the Mavs lies in the offseason and getting some youth in the organization. Dirk and Kidd are both sure bet HoFers, but even 2 HoFers can not carry a team when they are playing against Father Time.
Surprises in 2011:
Even as JKidd ages his play-making shows little effect of his age. Kidd could still lead the league in assists at 37.
Random Thoughts:
Does Mark Cuban carry hip insurance on his players?
Carmelo/Paul Factor
Ditto as above, difference is that the Mavs can not even entertain signing a max free agent.
Projection
They will be on the bubble of the playoffs and will not look in a spot until the final games of the season.

Houston Rockets
Overview:
Yao is not a team, Yao can not win alone, we don’t even know if Yao can stay healthy. That said, you do not send arguably your best young player whom you just signed to play in Houston for 5 years to a division rival for pocket change. No offense to Courtney Lee, he plays good on ball defense, but he is not in the same class as Trevor Ariza.
Keys to Success:
Keeping Yao’s legs under him.
Surprises in 2011:
Houston will finish out of playoff contention.
Random Thoughts:
Are they making a play for a lottery pick? Is that their strategy?
Projection
Near the bottom of the Western Division.
Carmelo/Paul Factor
With what?

New Orleans Hornets
Overview:
Last year we heard alot about 2 unnamed stars “quitting” on their teams, one even openly aired his quitfulness with pride. Does New Orleans want to fall into that trap?
Keys to Success:
Trade Chris Paul while he still has time on his contract and it does not look like a desperation move to get the most for their buck.
Surprises in 2011:
Chris Paul carried this team on his shoulders, lets see how this team does when CP3 is just showing up.
Random Thoughts:
Start showing these players that they have it to easy, if CP3 tries to “quit” bench him and let him just stew. It may have killed Starbury’s game.
Projection
Not good.
Carmelo/Paul Factor
CP3 will not be a Hornet for much longer.